Ericsson Mobility Report June 2024
5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription before the end of the forecast period. Although 5G population coverage is growing, 5G mid-band is only deployed in around 25 percent of all sites globally outside of mainland China. The 5G mid-band spectrum provides a sweet spot between both coverage and capacity, while improving user experience, as shown by measurements from a leading service provider. As 5G matures, the focus for many service providers is expected to shift toward developing differentiated connectivity offerings.
Stronger outlook in Sub-Saharan Africa than expected. 5G subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2029 are anticipated to exceed 320 million, accounting for 28 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time. This has been adjusted upward compared to our previous report, in line with a more positive outlook for the region, supported by spectrum releases in low- and mid-bands and more affordable devices.
At the end of 2023, North America had the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 59 percent. In North East Asia, penetration reached 41 percent, followed by the GCC countries at 34 percent and Western Europe at 26 percent. 5G subscriptions increased by 160 million during the first quarter of 2024, to total 1.7 billion. Subscriptions for 4G now total 5.2 billion, falling by 26 million during Q1 2024. 4G subscriptions are projected to continue declining to around 3 billion by the end of 2029, as subscribers continue to migrate to 5G. During the first quarter, 3G subscriptions declined by 37 million, while 2G subscriptions dropped by 41 million. 2G and 3G network sunsetting continues around the world. The timeline for this transition varies based on the country and service provider, but the phase-out of 3G networks is anticipated to happen more quickly than for 2G in the coming years. For example, an overwhelming majority of service providers in Europe are currently shutting down 3G networks to refarm spectrum for use with 4G and 5G, while maintaining 2G for legacy IoT services. Around 300 service providers have now launched commercial 5G services, and around 50 have deployed or launched 5G standalone (SA).2
Ericsson Mobility Report June 2024
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